Perception vs. Reality in Lost Productivity

People may quibble about the exact percentages shown below, but the primary message sent by this unscientific chart is that very often there is a huge disparity between what people think is causing a problem vs. the actual cause of the problem. Even with the much hyped Y2K problem, I am convinced that just as much time will be lost by user errors as by Y2K effects.

In the late 80s, most people blamed problems on viruses and hardware. The reality was that software and user error were much more likely to be at fault. Today most people blame problems on Y2K (here considered part of software bugs) and viruses. The reality is that user error is still as large a factor as software bugs.

Notes

• Virus infections have always been more of a scare than reality
• Hardware bugs (especially incompatibilities) were perceived to be a big problem in the late 80s. Today, thanks to the Wintel monopoly, they are a much smaller issue.
• Software bugs were responsible for more problems than most people realized in the late 80s. Recently with Y2K concerns hitting us at every turn, people are too quick to blame a problem on software bugs. Yes there are a lot of software bugs, but not as many, nor as severe as many people think.
• User error is rarely admitted to be a cause of a problem. Both then and now it remains a major problem.

Sources -- the first version of this chart was drawn by David Ray on a white board in 1987. The new data is my estimate based on years working in the industry with mainframes, workstations and PCs.